Kanye on SNL

Woke up on Sunday from a long Saturday night and flipped on SNL. Other than the probably over-the-line blind jokes about David Patterson, the one thing worth watchintg for this week was Kanye West. Been a Kanye fan for a while, but I absolutely love the new album - it's like he Kanye made a Ryan Adams album with beats.

Of course, the one downside to the album, particularly as performed live, is that Kanye sings, and Kanye's not a very good singer. In fact, I eagerly showed these to a friend who's a good singer, and she was both offended by how bad his singing was and impressed by the awesome visual display.

Also, Love Lockdown has a lot of karaoke potential.

Love Lockdown:


Heartless:

Rayn Adams - Cobwebs

Ryan Adams has been blogging constantly the last couple of days, including posting a ton of home demos and acoustic versions. This one's definitely my favorite, a version of the song "Cobwebs" off the new album. Been thinking about this song a lot lately (it's about love and fragility and Manhattan, I think), and this version is tremendous.


"COBWEBS" new version- Home Jam RA from Wilson Wolf on Vimeo.

Greatness.

Animal puppets sing Usher's "Love in This Club."

Now, that may sound stupid, or boring, or just awful.

But I nearly fell on the floor laughing.

Judge for yourself.

See more funny videos at Funny or Die

Ryan Adams playing "Two" in his hotel room

it takes two from Wilson Wolf on Vimeo.

Great clip. I think the recorded version of this one was a bit too poppy. This one captures the lyrical quality of the song better.

Guster - August 16th, 2003, Radio Music City Hall

This is the earliest show I attended that's up there, and still a favorite. I was a huge Guster fan in college, and although I sort of fell out of it after college, I have some fond memories of their shows, which were universally pretty fun, sometimes reaching excellence (as they did this night). Weirdly, my sister, who didn't share much musically with me, got to college and pretty much immediately became a Guster fan.

This one features my favorite Guster song (Either Way), my favorite Guster concert sing-a-long (Happier), and the song that's probably their best (Come Downstairs and Say Hello).

I Spy Careful Barrel Of A Gun (Nothing But) Flowers Keep It Together Red Oyster Cult Either Way Ramona What You Wish For Airport Song Homecoming King Medicine All The Way Up To Heaven Come Downstairs & Say Hello Demons Fa Fa Parachute I Hope Tomorrow Is Like Today Amsterdam Happier

.

The Live Music Archive

The utterly indispensable Live Music Archive now has a feature that lets you embed streaming shows. So, yeah, I'll be doing that a bit in the next few days. I'll throw up shows I went to, along with shows I just happen to think are awesome.

Willie Randolph

Don't think I have much new to say on this one, but man, what a shitty way for him to go out. I understand the logic behind firing him at this point - his style wasn't the one to turn this team around. But he'd done a good job. He didn't deserve to get axed late at night, on the west coast, after a victory.

Even by the Mets' standards, this has been a strange season.

R.E.M. - Man on the Moon

Saw R.E.M. tonight. Awesome experience - they're one of the quintessential live bands. Michael Stipe has that undeniable frontman charisma. They closed with Man on the Moon, which has always been a favorite of mine because: a) it's an awesome tune and b) it pays tribute to Andy Kaufman, who may have been the most brilliant comedic mind ever.

If you believe
There's nothing up his sleeve
Then nothing is cool

Marah

Just got done working out to the sounds of Marah. Wanted to post Round Eye Blues, but couldn't find a good version of that on Youtube. So, asa replacement, my second favorite Marah song - It's Only Money, Tyrone.

Ryan Adams - Call Me on Your Way Back Home

Was talking about this song with Jenny today and decided I had to find this one on Youtube and post it. This one's from ACL. It's a wonderful impromptu bit - you can see the bassist, Cat Popper, trying to figure out which song Ryan's playing, then realizing it's Call Me and that it's solo.

Call me on your way back home, dear

'Cause I miss you

Honey I ain't nothing new

Counting Crows - Rain King

Killer live studio version of one of my all-time favorite songs - indeed, an old theme song of mine. They slip in a long bit of Gershwin's "Someone to Watch Over Me" in the middle, which is both an awesome tune unto itself and perfectly fits the song.

There’s a somebody I’m longin’ to see
I hope that she, turns out to be
Someone who’ll watch over me

I’m a little lamb lost in the woods
I know I could, always be good
To one who’ll watch over me

Although I may not be the man some
Girls think of as handsome
To my heart she carries the key

Won’t you tell her please to put on some speed
Follow my lead, oh, how I need
Someone to watch over me

So when I think of heaven

When I think of heaven

I think of you

Do you think of me too?

I belong

In the service of a queen

I belong

Anywhere but in between

She's been dying

I've been drinking

And I am the Rain King

And I need someone to watch over me

D'Antoni!

Overlooked in my flurry of music posts lately was the very excellent news out of MSG - Mike D'Antoni will be leading the Knickerbockers next year. I've been a great admirer of D'Antoni's Phoenix teams - they played a style that was always entertaining, and when they were hitting on all cylinders, captivating. I don't think D'Antoni makes the Knicks a contender anytime soon, nor do most people, I gather. But he will make them play a brand of basketball that won't be sleep inducing. He'll also probably make better use of David Lee and Renaldo Balkman. I am, for the first time in a long time, excited to see some Knicks basketball.

Now, the downside is that for D'Antoni's system to work, it needs the right pieces, most of which the Knicks don't have (I count Lee, Balkman, Marbury, Robinson, and maybe Quentin Richardson, who used to play for D'Antoni but has a bad back, as fitting in). Moreover, D'Antoni never got the Suns to the finals - yeah, they came close, and maybe the Suns front office is to blame for making some bad decisions, but the other great offensive guru, Don Nelson, has never won a title either.

Here's an interesting question: if you could have a coach who would guarantee entertaining basketball, with some success but no title, or a coach who produced boring but efficient winners, which would you pick? Would you rather be the Suns or the Spurs?

The Cardigans - If There is a Chance

I love this song so much and it slipped into my head today. The Cardigans are horribly underrated in America, mostly because the song everyone knows them for (Lovefool - "love me, love me, say that you love me") isn't a particularly great example of their work, especially over their last few albums. If There is a Chance is a b-side from Long Gone Before Daylight, which is one of my all-time favorite records. It's a simple little ballad, but Nina's voice is just so incredibly haunting - breathy but powerful. I love the idea of the chorus - the song is guy leaves girl, girl very sad, but the chorus is about how if she could dance with him one more time, she'd keep playing records until... I dunno, the end of time or until he falls in love with her again. The image of a continuously spinning record, matched to the swirling quality of the song really makes the song - it's a song about slow dancing that I always kinda want to slow dance to.

If there is a chance, just one in this world,
That we'll ever dance, again as it turns
If there is a chance, if there is a way,
There's one record left, that you havn't heared.
And i'll keep it spinnin.

Happy Mother's Day from Mr. T

Whiskeytown

As a longtime Ryan Adams fan who never got fully into his former band Whiskeytown, the recent Deluxe Edition release of Stranger's Almanac has proved a terrific revelation. Whiskeytown's work always felt uneven to me, for some reason. But Stranger's Alamanac is a near perfect album back to front. Part of my lack of love for Whiskeytown was ignorance - I always loved the songs like Houses on the Hill, Everything I Do (which I heard in Blue Smoke, weirdly), Dancing with the Women at the Bar, 16 Days, and Avenues. But there are songs that fill the gaps here that I'd heard but never fully appreciated - particularly the very pretty Somebody Remembers the Rose and the haunting Not Home Anymore. Highest recommendation to both the original album and the deluxe edition, which includes a live performance and a ton of killer demos (including a cover of the Fleetwood Mac song Dreams).

For whatever reason, the only part of the Whiskeytown Austin City Limits performance I could find on youtube was 16 Days. Great show.

Judd Apatow + John Mayer = Brilliant

New short video from Judd Apatow about the making of a John Mayer song. Always nice to see Johnny has a good sense of humor about himself.

Ryan Adams - Ya'll Busted Up Jesus Something Awful

Video of the day from Ryan Adams' always entertaining blog. Lots of fun posts today with new paintings and the like over there, too - www.dradamsfilms.com.

It's about Jesus, and cats with lasers coming out of their eyes. Ya know, normal stuff.


WEREWOLPH- "Ya'll Busted Up Jesus Somethin Awful" from Wilson Wolf on Vimeo.

Ben Folds

Been listening to a lot of Ben Folds today - he's been touring a bit lately, playing some new songs. Some seem catchy (Effington, Hiroshima) but I'm not feeling much lyrically. Here's an older one, All U Can Eat, which is one of those neat little Ben Folds-y deconstructions of America. First line is pretty great.

Damien Rice - Rootless Tree (piano version)

Possibly my favorite use of the word "fuck" in song.

Ryan Adams

Last week was the three year anniversary of the release of Cold Roses, which is among Ryan Adams' magnum opuses - an 80 minute double album packed with songs both instantly lovable and which grew more impressive over many listens. For reasons unknown to me, I've been thinking about the song Now That You're Gone a lot lately; it's one of those songs that comes to me sometimes when I haven't heard it in a long time. What struck me in re-watching the Austin City Limits performance from the fall of '05 is the restraint in the arrangement - the song could be a fist-pumping ballad with some more dramatic drumming and maybe a louder electric guitar. The chorus can sustain it - I definitely throw an arm in the air when singing it - but Ryan keeps it subdued and the song is better off for it.



As a bonus, another one that's been on my mind lately - Ryan and the Cards' cover of Alice in Chains' Down in a Hole. I was there the first time they busted it out, and it was a stunning experience - first that they were actually covering Alice in Chains, and second how well it worked. Let's just say Ryan can emotionally take on Jerry Cantrell's lyrics.

I think I know why people might like Barack

Remember when Bill Clinton when on Arsenio Hall in 1992? Me neither, I was 9. I mean, I remember that it happened, and people were really impressed, but it didn't hit me. Well, I think I figured out what that experience was like.

Two videos, the first from last week, the day after the debate. Let's just call this one the Hillbilly off His Shoulders:

The second, from tonight, features Barack finally (FINALLY!) referencing something I noticed a few years ago: the dude sounds like the Rock. This is, subtly, one of his best traits: he sounds powerful and strong, even if the dude is pretty skinny. It's a manly voice, and a charismatic one - the Rock's voice was one reasons he's such a huge star. But anyway, all three candidates will appear on WWE Raw tonight - Hilary sounding forced as usual, McCain making reference to Hulk Hogan (old much?), and Barack being reserved but stealing the show, with one of the great catchphrases in sports entertainment history. 

To quote Beaneball's reaction: HE DID IT HE DID IT HE DID IT OH MY GOD AMERICA WINS WE ARE THE WINNERS

Rock of Love finale and an album recommendation

A bit of dialogue to encompass why Rock of Love is so great.

Daisy: It offended me that you called me a stripper.

Ambre: That's your occupation! I'm a TV host and you're a stripper!

I guess I'm happy that Ambre won since Daisy has bothered me - no, repulsed me - for two months now. Plus, I bet it lasts like three months, and then it ends, and then there can be a sweet Rock of Love 3.

Quick album recommendation: the Cardigans' Gran Turismo. A lot of people probably recognize the band from that poppy song from the Romeo and Juliet soundtrack a long time ago (Lovefool), but their sound has gotten VERY different over the years. I've been a fan for a while of their 2003 album Long Gone Before Daylight, which fits nicely into the folk-rock I tend to favor. Gran Turismo, on the other hand, is electronic, spacy, ethereal. Captivating. I've long admired the big single, My Favorite Game, but the whole album, in sequence, is something I hadn't experienced until tonight. Can't believe I waited this long to finally just sit down with it (well, not quite - I was on the treadmill for part of it).

Grumpy Old Man

“Everybody, all they want to talk about is our free-throw shooting. I don’t know why. I come back to the conclusion that maybe they haven’t seen our team play, nor do they really know and the easy thing to talk about off the stat sheet is our free throws."
- John Calipari

I hate to be a curmudgeon, but being able to hit free throws is a basic fundamental of basketball. If you can't do it consistently, you really shouldn't win a title. It's the easiest way to put away a close game - if you can get a lead and hit your free throws, it's almost impossible for the trailing team to comeback.

Maybe, just maybe, there's a reason why Calipari still doesn't have a title. Just sayin...

New Notable Artist

This guy is pretty great.

N.B. He's been my best friend for the last decade, so I might be biased. But the performance is legit great.

Chin Chin at Southpaw

Just got back from a ridiculous Easter evening show at Southpaw. Chin Chin was awesome - they had the place dancing on a quiet Sunday night. Good news: they filmed this show for a DVD, so you can see it even if you weren't there. Better news: their album is getting a US release on April 29th (and even better, it's on Def Jux, the label for Dizzee Rascal, Aesop Rock, and R2D2 - none of whome I listen to, but if I've heard of them, then that's a pretty cool indie label for them to be on).

Go listen to the tunes here.

Two Nights with Counting Crows

I spent Sunday and Monday evening at the tiny Blender Theater on 23rd watching a pair of two hour plus shows by one of my favorite bands, Counting Crows. The sheer numbers of the performances are staggering - four and a half hours total, 35 different songs (including Mr. Jones twice, since they played the electric version on Sunday and the acoustic Storytellers version on Monday), the live debut of a song from the new album. Three things stood out:

1) The range of the performance. Sunday night was electric, energetic. Singer Adam Duritz bounced around so much he accidentally cut his hand on a piece of equipment. Monday night was mostly acoustic, showcasing the beauty of the arrangements and the emotive quality of Duritz's voice.

2) The quality of the performance. I've seen this band be good, and it's a fun show. But when they're great, it's a stunning experience. When Duritz has the energy, and is focused, he makes the songs come alive in a way few others could do.

3) How fucking great this new album is. They played most of Saturday Nights and Sunday Mornings over the two nights, and the entire second side in sequence on the second night. It's the most vital and exciting thing they've done since Recovering the Satellites. If you ever liked this band, you need to hear it. Pre-orders currently available on Amazon, Itunes, or wherever you like to buy (or steal) your music.

Good times with the Daily Show

Bush's press secretary is kinda hot in that Felicity Huffman on Sports Night way.

Eliot Spitzer night... in Georgia?

The Macon Music minor league baseball team is hosting an Eliot Spitzer night, and they've invited the ex-Gov to throw out the first pitch.

Details here.

Road trip to Georgia anyone?

Ryan Adams has a blog

This is gonna be awesome.

Go here.

Hippies!!!!!

The Daily Show eviscerates some hippies. Riggle's reaction to interviewing the grey long haired hippie is priceless.

Spitzer

No comments on whether he should resign, or whether what he did was really bad or not. Just pointing out that there are some hilarious details, and I've already made shirts out of them.

Get'em here.

Barry Bonds?

With the injuries to the Mets starting lineup mounting, and the announcement that Moises Alou (who's not quite Ironman) will be out until at least May, Buster Olney of ESPN has stirred the pot by suggesting that the Mets consider adding Barry Bonds. He points out that Bonds is still a better hitter than basically everyone on the Mets in almost all relevant categories. While he sucks in the field, he doesn't suck much worse than Alou, and his hitting is miles ahead of Damion Easley or Marlon Anderson or Endy Chavez or Angel Pagan.

Bonds has been villified by basically everyone over the last few years as a representative of the steroid era and thus the great evil in baseball. But honestly, I just don't see it. I've always felt that the obsession with steroids was a bit absurd - no one ever argued that coke or greenies or whatever people took in the 60s ruined baseball. Is it bad for the players bodies? Yeah, but my liberterian streak is fine with them making choices about how to compete in their chosen profession. Many lawyers harm their loved ones through simple neglect, which sucks, but no one's stepping in to prevent that if that's the path they choose. Anyone who uses steroids to deny that Bonds is the greatest home run hitter ever (especially as we find out that plenty of pitchers were on 'roids too) is a blind adherent to a theoretical "purity" of baseball that never existed.

There's some legitimate arguments against bringing in Bonds based on the way he affects team chemistry, but the Giants didn't seem to hate him. Moreover, as Faith and Fear in Flushing points out, the chemistry on the Mets last year wasn't exactly awesome. Plus, as my boy Beaneball always likes to point out, chemistry in baseball has way less impact than in team sports where offense involves, say, passing or working together more than minimally.

So, yeah, it'd be pretty awesome to see a Mets lineup with Bonds. Imagine Wright and Beltran hitting with Bonds protecting them, or better yet, Bonds hitting with their protection? If he could stay on the field, we'd be looking at 30+ homers (he hit 28 in 340 at bats last year). Barry Bonds isn't a nice guy, and he might be a fucking douchebag, but Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden, and Keith Hernandez were also fucking douchebags. They were our douchebags. They were championship douchebags.

Courtesy of Deadspin:



It's a music video from the 1986 Los Angeles Dodgers called "The Baseball Boogie." Just try and get through half of it, I dare you.

Johan's Debut

I had lunch in a sports bar today so that I could I witness the first pitches thrown by Johan Santana as a Met. His debut was not too impressive - three runs allowed on a homer in the first, although he followed it with a scoreless second. Thoughts:

1) What if he's a disappointment? That would suck. 

2) Holy crap, I'm actually watching spring training baseball! I'm not sure I've done this since I was in elementary school. I haven't been this excited about a baseball season since I was 8 or 9 years old. Of course, that would heighten the pain if the season ends up being a disappointment.

On the other TV in the bar, they were showing some bad ESPN mid-day show, and Brandon Jacobs was on, wearing an Under Armour sweatshirt. On the one hand, I was annoyed. He couldn't put on a polo shirt to be on TV? On the other hand, I now know there's no chance he'll ever retire early to do the last hour of the Today show.

Another victory

Signal to Noise directs our attention to a note in this article that LT (the original, better one, that actually showed up for playoff games, Ladainian) took 18 grand off Michael Jordan in golf last week in Palm Beach. Why is this notable? LT was, of course, the leader of the great Giants defense of the 80s, the last great defense I got to cheer. MJ was the premier villain of the NBA in the 90s, constantly stopping the progress of those good but never quite good enough Pat Riley Knicks. So less than a month after the Giants toppled the Evil Empire in the Super Bowl, LT takes money out of Jordan's already depleted (thanks to the divorce) pockets.

Oh, and did I mention Johan is pitching tomorrow? It's been a good month.

Counting Crows and the NBA

Spending a pleasant Friday afternoon on the couch watching a DVD of a Counting Crows show from Tulsa last year. They've really had the mojo going the last year or so, ever since Duritz lost weight and went back to the "August..." era dreads as opposed to the pineapple head thing. I got the show from Crowstown, which remains the best place to make use of the wonders of bit torrent and listen to some live Crows. Their show from a couple of weeks ago at the Bowery Ballroom was/is incredible - two sets, two+ hours, a set of classics and a large-scale unveiling of their new album, Saturday Nights and Sunday Mornings. It's shaping up to be their best work since at least Recovering the Satellites, and possibly since August. Duritz says it's an exploration of his disintegration and the process of putting himself back together. Pre-order currently available from Amazon.

Also, my buddy Beaneball has a huge post about all the NBA deadline deals. I'm just starting to get back into the NBA after recovering from the NFL season (have I mentioned that my favorite team won the greatest Super Bowl ever in the biggest upset ever?), but this Western Conference looks like one of the greatest assemblages of talent ever in a single season. It's a shame that one of these teams will have to miss the playoffs (please let it be the dull Rockets and not the super-awesome Warriors). I'm pretty excited to check out the Suns with Shaq on Sunday against Detroit - as much as everyone has bashed that trade, it was (apparently) obvious that the Suns didn't particularly like each other, and shipping out Marion may improve them by subtracting his attitude. I loved that Suns team, but as long as they basically maintain their pace, this isn't selling out their principles, as some have suggested; it's an upgrade that makes them a better contender. More on Sunday if I can actually make it through a full basketball game for the first time this season.

A Little Politics

No political rambling from me (you can get a fairly good approximation of my views by reading Andrew Sullivan's blog), but I was directed to something pretty cool today: a Harvard implicit association test which tests your subconscious feelings about the candidates. I'm apparently equally fine with Obama and McCain, which is not much of a shock. Interestingly, I'm apparently not very offended by Huckabee (which I guess makes sense - he seems like a nice guy, and I'd probably find some of his politics aligned with mine, but he's a crazy Christian nutjob and all, so there's no way I'd vote for him). Lagging very far behind them was Hillary, who I apparently hate with exceptional passion (while taking the test, I actually recoiled at seeing pictures of her after a while).

Anyway, the test only takes a few minutes and is worth a try.

Greatest Ad Ever

Remind to buy some Reebok.

OH. MY. GOD.

I've been sort of beyond words for an hour now, but I want to get a few things down.

I can't believe this. And that's not a cliche - I actually had to ask my friends a few minutes after the game whether or not what I was seeing was real.

Everything from the Tyree catch onwards was pure hysteria. My dad, probably correctly, told me I'd see highlights of that in 20 years and tell my kids about seeing that.

I will remember seeing the ball fall into Burress' hands for the touchdown forever.

I spent the fourth quarter slugging wine because of how anxious I was. I thought it was over with the Moss TD. The part of me that had watched almost all of Eli's starts could feel the mistake coming. The throw to Samuel was almost that. But when he slipped free and found Tyree (a rhyme!) I think something may have changed. Either way, I'll always have a place in my heart for the guy. I've watched more football the last four years than at any other point in my life, and so my love and appreciation of football has grown with him. He was flawed, but flawed in an exciting way - he would always suck it up for three quarters but find Super Eli in the fourth, leading furious comebacks. Sometimes they won, sometimes they fell short. But he was exciting, even if we were never sure he'd be a winner.

Tonight, Eli produced the exciting five minutes I've ever had as a sports fan.

Eli to Tyree.

Eli to Burress.

17-14.

18-1.

ELI!

JOHAN

Here's the simplest way to explain the impact of Johan Santana's trade to the Mets: when I saw announcement this afternoon, my Mets fan friends and I immediately started discussing partial season ticket packages that would guarantee us playoff seats. 

Mets fans are, understandably, a notoriously skeptical bunch. But I haven't talked to a single Mets fan who isn't stunned with excitement. This is awesome.

Did I mention my favorite football team is playing in the Super Bowl on Sunday? It's a good week.

T-shirt Designs

Got a bit bored today and started playing around with designing t-shirts. Here's my Spreadshirt shop - all the prices are as low as they'd let me go, so you're not putting any money in my pocket if you decide you like one and buy one. I think I like the Jersey one best so far.

Listen to Ryan Adams Shows Live Online

Go to www.littlemoonradio.com to stream shows from Ryan Adams' (notice how respectable people now do the s's thing? It bothers me, it's wrong) current west coast tour live as they happen. Listening currently to a ridiculous version of Off Broadway from Santa Barbara.

I love the internet.

Adrian Peterson's draft stock in 2008

Much like Tom Brady, Adrian Peterson is being talked about as a top 3 (some even say first overall) pick in 2008. As with Brady, I'm a bit skeptical, although after reviewing his first season, I'm less skeptical of him than of Brady.

First things first - I'm going to use a scoring system of 6 pts for a TD, and .1 point per yard rushing and receiving. Here's Peterson's stat line for the whole season.

Rush yards = 1341, Rush TD = 12
Receiving Yards = 268, Receiving TD = 1

That gets us a total of 238.9 points, good for 4th overall behind LT2, Westbrook, and Addai. When you take his per game average (238.9/14 games played = ~ 17 ppg), he jumps ahead of Addai. All in all, it was an impressive first season. But as an owner of Peterson, it felt a bit up and down. Recall that he had two 200 yd + games against Chicago and San Diego. Those games were certainly memorable performances, and created the legend of the Purple Jesus. In those two weeks, he totalled 90.6 points, which was 37% of his total.

That left 148.3 points for the other 12 games, an average of 12.4, which is less impressive. However, if he kept up a 12 point per game pace for a 16 game season, he'd end up with 197.73 points, which would actually get him to sixth this year (behind Jamal Lewis and ahead of Marion Barber). Pretty good. I also took a look at his Crank Score (explained here - http://www.fftoday.com/articles/waldman/gc_consistency.htm), which is basically a measure of how consistently a player is an elite player, a RB1, a RB2, or neither based on their weekly scores. In leagues that start 2 RBs, he moved from around 4th to 8th, depending on the number of teams in the league. But his company at the top included guys like Jamal Lewis (not much upside) and Ronnie Brown (injury concerns) who definitely aren't worth as much as AP in the draft next year (as an aside, Westbrook and LT2 blew everyone away in terms of consistency, with Addai close behind).

Still, I had the lingering sense that Peterson was boom or bust, a guy who would carry you to victory one week and leave you in the cold next week.

I decided to take a closer look at those other weeks to get a sense of how his whole season played out.

Week 1 - ATL - 103 rush, 60 rec, rec TD = 22.3
Week 2 - DET - 66 rush , 52 rec = 11.8
Week 3 - KC - 102 rush , 48 rec, rush TD = 21
Week 4 - GB - 112 rush, 6 rec = 11.8
Week 5 - BYE
Week 6 - CHI - 224 rush , 9 rec, 3 rush TD = 41.1
Week 7 - DAL - 63 rush, 12 rec, rush TD = 13.5
Week 8 - PHI - 70 rush = 7
Week 9 - SD - 296 rush, 19 rec, 3 Rush TD = 49.5
Week 10 - GB - 45 rush, 14 rec = 5.9
Week 11 - OAK - injured - [holy crap, imagine AP against this year's Oakland run D?]
Week 12 - NYG - injured
Week 13 - DET - 116 rush, 10 rec, 2 rush TD = 24.6
Week 14 - SF - 3 rush = .3
Week 15 - CHI - 78 rush, 17 rec, 2 rush TD = 21.5
Week 16 - WAS - 27 rush , 21 rec = 4.8
Week 17 - DEN - 36 rush = 3.6

What's notable is that for the first half of the season, he was pretty consistently a good play - only the 7 point game in Philly dipped below double digits. He had four such games in the second half, and most problematically, three of those games came in weeks 14, 16, and 17 - the playoffs. The SF game was an unmitigated disaster, and the Washington game is the one that stings for me because it killed me in my championship game.

Was this a case of the roookie hitting the "rookie wall"? Football Outsiders did some excellent research in Pro Football Prospectus 2007 disproving the "rookie wall" thoery. Indeed, I think AP's problems were caused mostly by lingering effects from his knee injury and the re-emergence of Chester Taylor. That brings up my two biggest concerns with drafting Peterson early.

First, the injury history is hard to ignore. He hasn't played a full season at the collegiate or pro level yet. Some of the collegiate injuries were broken bones, which don't tend to have lingering effects. But ligament damage is more problematic, even if it was only the LCL. Any owner thinking about drafting him early will have to consider their own personal willingness to take on injury risk.

Second, if Chester Taylor is still in the backfield, he will see some carries, and if he's the one who happens to bust off the long touchdown (see the SF game), that could make for a bad fantasy day for AP. Moreover, using Taylor may be necessary to keep Peterson healthy - in other words, a RBBC, at least when Peterson is banged up. Maybe you won't get burned in the playoffs next year, but is that a risk you want to take?

On the other hand, he was more consistent than I thought, and he obviously gives you more upside than anyone besides LT2 on any given week. He can break a huge, huge game, which is a pretty sweet characteristic in a top 5 pick.

So where does he fall? He's definitely behind LT2 for me. He'd be behind Westbrook for me as well, since Westbrook was just so consistent this year. He and Addai are very close for my taste, which would put him around the 3rd or 4th pick (since no QB should be taken that high, see Brady post below :)).

In PPR leagues, his value drops a bit - definitely behind Addai, and possibly behind Steven Jackson. This could change if he gets better as a blocker, allowing him to stay in on 3rd down more and get more pass targets. (As I mentioned Crank scores above, it's notable that this year in PPR leagues, he dropped in consistency to 12th, behind guys like Reggie Bush, who had mediocre overall season but got lots of targets).

One of the big question makrs for me in terms of AP's value, and one we won't have answered for a few months, will be who you can get coming back around in the 2nd. If you can get a steady RB2 in the second or third round (a Lewis or McGahee), Peterson might be worth taking above Addai and maybe even Westbrook, because you can balance his upside with a steadier guy, and simply hope he doesn't crash in the playoffs. Also, his injury risk becomes less of a concern if you're the type that loves to stockpile RBs, because you should have a decent backup for him anyway (a Taylor handcuff is intriguing, but would probably cost a very high pick since Taylor is a very good RB and everyone knows his value to the AP owner).

Bottom line: I don't think he's as bad a pick at the top of the draft as Brady, but he comes with some concerns that need to be weighed based on your league's drafting tendencies.

Rufus Wainwright in Jersey

Headed out last night to scenic New Brunswick, New Jersey to see Rufus Wainwright perform solo, book-ended by the NFL games (Packers-Seahawks in the Houlihan's in Penn Station, and then Pats-Jags on Tivoed delay).

The show was very good. I prefer Rufus playing solo over him with a band. While I love his arrangements, the key to the Rufus experience is his voice, which is showcased in solo shows. It's a bit hard to describe, but his voice has the power to grip a room and make everyone sit perfectly still so as to be properly attentive. It's captivating. "I'm Not Ready to Love" was a highlight, as well as the busting out of "Dinner at Eight," which I hadn't seen him play in a few years and was the holy shit moment of the night. He also pulled out 11:11, although he flubbed some of the best lyrics. That was symptomatic of the small problem with the show - he seemed a bit out of it (he said he had just gotten in from Aspen, and that he was adjusting from the altitude) and wasn't quite as sharp as he is at his best. Still worth the trip to Jersey.

Funny moment at the end - the show ended right at 10:30, and there was a 10:34 train out of New Brunswick. I and half a dozen other desperate New Yorkers decided to spring the five blocks to the train station, making the train with about 30 seconds to spare. Never underestimate the desperation of New Yorkers to get out of Jersey.

RB Injuries

Anecdotally, it felt like this year was a terrible one in terms of RB injuries. It seemed like none of the top RBs, save Tomlinson, were guys you could start every week without at least keeping close track of the waiver wire. Of course, this worked to the advantage of those who loved the waiver wire: not only did new, effective starters frequently emerge, but frustrated owners sometimes dumped quality players (I was able to pick up Brandon Jacobs in multiple leagues). But was this really a particularly bad season?

I decided to take a look at games missed by the top RBs20 and compare them to the results from the last five years, as found in David Dorey’s book Fantasy Football: The Next Level. Since he looked at the top 20 Running Backs based on ADP, I did the same to be consistent.

The results were interesting.

Year Games Lost Number of Players Missing Games
2002 19 8
2003 49 9
2004 65 11
2005 51 10
2006 35 9
2007 56 15

So, there weren’t a uniquely large number of games missed this year; however, there were a uniquely large number of plays affected. Many of them (Alexander, Rudi Johnson, Henry) did not miss many games but spent several games being on the field but ineffective. Moreover, these RBs were often on the injury report, forcing owners to constantly sweat out game time decisions and perhaps leading to a perception of larger injury loss.

Also, I cut off that table at the top 20 for easy comparison, but here were the games missed of players 21-26, guys who were often drafted as starters. It totals another 40 games lost.

21) McAllister 13
22) Lynch 3
23) Peterson (Min) 2
24) C. Williams 12
25) Barber 0
26) Green 10

What does all of this mean? Some will see it as reason to move away from drafting running backs early, but I’m not sure that’s the right analysis. As the table shows, the last big year for RB injuries was 2004. That year, much like this one, QBs dominated the top scorers list, and some argued that fantasy football was moving from a RB dominated game to a QB dominated. Of course, the demise of the RB was greatly exaggerated.

More importantly, even if the increase in QB scoring continues, that doesn’t necessarily mean QBs should be drafted early – in fact, it encourages waiting because a good QB can be found later in the draft. Top RBs are still hard to find late in the draft. Some will point to the fact that Earnest Graham and Ryan Grant could be found on the waiver wire this year to suggest that starting RBs can be found later in the draft, too. But while this year wasn’t a historic one for injuries, it was on the high side. If RB injuries trend back downwards, those waiting to find starters on waivers may not find them. A dominant, healthy RB1 is still the holy grail, which is one reason why the guy at the top of drafts this year was so valuable – here’s the list of the top 20 with the number of games each missed, and note the number next to LDT’s name.

1) Tomlinson 0
2) S. Jackson 4
3) Larry Johnson 8
4) Gore 1
5) Alexander 3
6) Addai 1
7) Westbrook 1
8) Parker 1
9) Bush 4
10) Rudi Johnson 5
11) Maroney 3
12) Henry 5
13) McGahee 1
14) Jones-Drew 0
15) R. Brown 9
16) Edge James 0
17) Benson 5
18) Portis 0
19) T. Jones 0
20) Jacobs 5

Insane night this evening, as I saw two great bands. It occurs to me I should have posted this before the shows, so that those of you who were interested could check them out, but uh... maybe you can see them next time they come around? And buy their albums in the meantime if you like what you hear?

The first was Fooling April, a band my buddy Joe used to book for shows when he was promoting during college. They remind me of Ben Folds, maybe circa the Rockin' the Suburbs album. Good stuff.

Where to find them: myspace.com/fa

Recommended: Breaking the Skin, The Way Back Down

Then we headed to Brooklyn to see Chin Chin, a band I booked in college (back in the day...) and one of the best party bands around. Their sound is impossible to describe - it's certainly music to dance to, but it incorporates elements of rock (the sweet guitar and drums), jazz (the ridiculous horn section), and even some new wave synths. The show was absolutely incredible. I'm not much of a dancer, but yeah... it was on.

Where to find them: myspace.com/chinchinnyc

Recommended: Appetite, Miami

Book Recommendation

A plug for the best book I've read so far on my winter break from law school - Todd Gallagher's brilliant tome, "Andy Roddick Beat Me With a Frying Pan." It's an exploration of the great questions in sports - would a fat goalie be dominant in hockey? Would a bunch of midgets be a great lineup in baseball, because it'd be impossible to throw strikes to them? How many tough men could Mike Tyson beat in a row? It's funny, but also quite well-researched (almost shockingly so).

As a bonus, the author is a good dude. I saw him speak at the Gelf's Varsity Letters night in December, and since he was hilarious, I bought the book and asked him to sign it. He was so happy to have someone buy the book (the publisher apparently has not been doing heavy publicity), that he a) signed the book, "Chris, you are better than the troops at Normandy for buying my book", and b) bought me and a couple of other attendees beers and chatted with us about sports for about an hour, answering all my questions about what Mike Tyson was really like (since he'd tried to put on a PPV event with Tyson fighting tough men). Plus, that chat ended up with me meeting Chuck Klosterman, so I owe the guy one.

Buy the book here.

Tom Brady – Top 5 pick in 2008?

Let me begin by saying that I was a proud Tom Brady owner this season. I drafted him in the 2nd round of a 14 team league and then rode him to a 13-0 regular season and survived the week 15 disaster, only to lose in the championship game (thanks to Purple Jesus – more on him next week).

Now, was I a psychic? No. I had a good feeling about Brady this year, especially since the league I drafted him has a point per completion and a penalty for incompletions – he generally has had a good completions percentage and was getting a bunch of new targets. But I had no idea he would break Manning’s record, or complete almost 69% of his passes, including nearly 80% in the first month. (Take a look at his September and October stats - I mean, holy shit! 20:1 TD:INT ration in October!) No one did. And this is what made him such a valuable player to have – you could get him in 2nd or 3rd round, having already taken a top back. If you hit with your top pick, you were golden with Brady (in the league discussed above, I got Westbrook in the first round).

But now, everyone and their brother is pegging Brady as a top of the first round player next year. Implicit in these suggestions is that Brady will be a dominant QB next year, with at least some significant separation between him and the rest of the field. Is he going to be a good value in that slot?

I think we can all agree that all bets are off if Randy Moss leaves New England. That would very radically change Brady’s set of options and would lead most people to temper their expectations for him. But, for our analysis, let’s assume Moss does return, and the offense next year looks pretty similar to the one from this year. What sort of season can we expect from Brady next year?

There’s an obvious analogue to Brady’s 2007 season – Manning’s 2004 season in which he set the record. In that year, Manning threw for 49 TDs, 10 Ints, and 4557 yards. How did he follow up that year? 28 TDs, 10 Ints, 3747 yards. Of course, Manning rested for most of the last two games that year, but that’s likely for Brady as well – the only reason he didn’t sit this year is because of the undefeated season and the chase for Manning’s record. But even if Manning had played the last two games, and we grant him his average output for them, he ends up with 32 TDs – a very good year, but not head and shoulders above the rest of the QB pack. In fact, Manning ranked third that year, behind Carson Palmer and a guy named Tom Brady.

Why would this happen? First, regression to the mean. Brady played at what was probably the absolute peak of his skills this year. It’s likely that he’ll play at a somewhat lower level next year, albeit still a very high one. Moreover, teams will have had a full summer to analyze the Pats passing offense, and will be keyed in to stop it next year. Bill Belichick and his coordinators are smart men – when they see teams overcompensating to stop the pass, they’ll call runs more often than they did this year, cutting into Brady’s passing stats.

Moreover, think about what taking Brady at the top of the first round does to a team’s draft. Let’s say you select Brady 3rd overall in a 12 team draft. Your team’s next pick is the 22nd pick. By that point, the top 15 or so running backs and many of the top 10 receivers will be gone. To be successful, you’d have to get very lucky on some running back flyers in the middle rounds, or catch lightning in a bottle off the waiver wire (which is pretty hard to do in years which the top 10 backs stay healthy – more on RB injuries next week). If Brady plays at a high level, but not a godly record breaking level, he’ll perform about as well as many QBs you could take in the sixth round or later. Which would you rather have – Brady and a 6th round RB, or Brian Westbrook and a 6th round QB?

Don’t agree? Let’s take a look at the top 12 QBs from this year, and let’s see where you could have drafted them.

I’m using Yahoo standard scoring (25 yards/point, TD – 4 points, INT - -1 point), and going off actual points accumulated (which means the scores may be lower than total stats because there’s no fractional scoring). ADP ranks come from myfantasyleague.com, and the drafts cover the last two weeks before the season.

QB Rank, Pts, ADP Rank, ADP #
1) Brady 386, QB4, 22.06
2) Romo 302, QB8, 56.69
3) P. Manning 282, QB1, 7.67
4) Brees 262, QB3, 21.69
4) Anderson 262, Not drafted
6) Roethlisberger 259, QB14, 88.52
7) Favre 252, QB16, 106.94
8) Hasselbeck 243, QB11, 62.73
9) Palmer 241, QB2, 18.42
10) Warner 216, Not drafted
11) Cutler 212, QB13, 86.77
12) McNabb 204, QB6, 35.38

This suggests you could get a very good starting QB very late in the draft. Reviewing my drafts from this year, I was able to snag Roethlisberger very late in several drafts, as early as the 10th round and as late as the 13th round. In one draft, I got Favre in the 11th and Ben in the 13th.

Or, look at my example above of combining a 6th round QB with Brian Westbrook. If you took a QB in the 6th round this year, you might have taken Tony Romo. A team with Romo and Westbrook this year was a very good one.

For reference, here’s the list of the top 12 in ADP, followed by how well they did.

QB ADP, Pts Rank, Pts
1) P. Manning 7.67, QB3, 282
2) Palmer 18.42, QB9, 241
3) Brees 21.69, QB4, 262
4) Brady 22.06, QB1, 386
5) Bulger 30.38, QB22, 115
6) McNabb 35.38, QB12, 204
7) Young 54.73, QB17, 159
8) Romo 56.69, QB2, 302
9) Rivers 57.65, QB15, 183
10) Kitna 58.68, QB13, 195
11) Hasselbeck 62.73, QB8, 243
12) Leinart 73.08, QB52, 31

Yeah, taking a top 10 Quarterback did not work out so great this year.

So where does Brady belong? I think he belongs in the back of the first round, in Peyton Manning territory. I’d select him at the point where I felt there was a drop in talent at RB. Manning as a 9th or 10th pick can be very effective, since he’s one of the most consistent QBs you can find and never seems to get hurt. Plus, since you’re taking him late, you can grab a quality RB with your 2nd round pick, mitigating the damage (although I won a 10 team league this year taking Manning at 9th, and then Maroney in the 2nd, so maybe you don’t even need to do that).

Thoughts and comments welcome and appreciated.

Hey There, and a Note on the Name

The Yemen Deli is where I ate an unhealthy percentage of my meals from September 06 until August 07. It had not only the cheapest sandwiches you can find in New York City ($3 for a foot long sub!) but also some of the best.  Honestly, it's one of my favorite places in Brooklyn.

It is also the name of a championship fantasy football team from the recently concluded season. And so it makes a perfect name for the blog - it makes me think of both delicious food and victory (and of course, one of the best things about fantasy football is EXACTLY that you can claim victory while eating a sub).

I'll start with some thoughts on the 2007 fantasy football season (and a look ahead to 08), and intersperse them with some musings on music and media.

Concluding with my favorite toast: "To greatness!"